Question

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?

Resolved :3.38k4.03k

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction4.03k (3.8k - 4.27k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<2k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>6k
community	0.3%	3.805k	4.031k	4.269k	0.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<2k	0.3%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	3.805k	—
median	4.031k	—
upper 75%	4.269k	—
Upper bound
>6k	0.6%	—

What was the final result?3.38k

Community Baseline Score

-3.2

Community Peer Score

27.6

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Jan 15, 2021

Closes:

Mar 13, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 18, 2022

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning

Q-learning

Temporal difference learning

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Wired•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

14.4k

How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

8.41k

Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Jan 15, 2021

Closes:

Mar 13, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 18, 2022

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning

Q-learning

Temporal difference learning

How RGTI Stock Might React To Upcoming Earnings?

Forbes•Mar 4, 2025

Turing Award Goes to A.I. Pioneers Andrew Barto and Richard Sutton

New York Times•Mar 5, 2025

Pioneers of Reinforcement Learning Win the Turing Award

Wired•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

14.4k

How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

8.41k

MetaculusM

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?

Make a Prediction

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

Comments

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

Forecasting AI Progress — Discussion

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