Question

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction33.5k (26.3k - 45.3k)

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CDF

weight:

	<5k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>100k
community	0.2%	26.35k	33.55k	45.32k	1.9%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<5k	0.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	26.35k	—
median	33.55k	—
upper 75%	45.32k	—
Upper bound
>100k	1.9%	—

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Jan 15, 2021

Closes:

Mar 13, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2026

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

ArXiv

Machine learning

DQN

Reinforcement learning

Q-learning

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