📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?

2
6
Total Forecasters41
Community Prediction421 (302 - 546)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<100
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1k
...
...
...
...
...
9.6%
302.4
420.6
546.2
2.0%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting AI Progress
AI Progress Essay Contest
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Artificial Intelligence
Physics
Materials science
Semiconductor
Electronics
Printed circuit board
Electrical engineering
United States

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