Question

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved :No1%

47 comments47

Total Forecasters209

Community Prediction1% (0.2% - 1.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

68.2

Community Peer Score

8.9

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

Republicans and Democrats face a crisis of confidence

•Dec 17, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world

•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-02

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

Republicans and Democrats face a crisis of confidence

•Dec 17, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world

•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-02