Question

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved :No1%

47 comments47

Total Forecasters209

Community Prediction1% (0.2% - 1.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

68.2

Community Peer Score

8.9

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

Top Trump campaign strategists explain why 2024 was a 'black swan election'

AlterNet•Dec 20, 2024

Did Trump election signal start of new political era? — Harvard Gazette

•Dec 15, 2024

Our Close Elections Signal a New Gilded Age

Time•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-02

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

2024 Elections (US)

Republican Party (US)

Top Trump campaign strategists explain why 2024 was a 'black swan election'

AlterNet•Dec 20, 2024

Did Trump election signal start of new political era? — Harvard Gazette

•Dec 15, 2024

Our Close Elections Signal a New Gilded Age

Time•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-02

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MetaculusM

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Make a Prediction

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

Comments

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?