Question

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved :No

47 comments47

Total Forecasters209

Community Prediction

(0.2% - 1.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

68.2

Community Peer Score

8.9

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Feb 19, 2021

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 20, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 20, 2021

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2024 Elections (US)

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

1.4%

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

Comments

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