Question
Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters209
Community Prediction
1%
(0.2% - 1.1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
68.2
Community Peer Score
8.9
Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2021
Closes:Nov 4, 2024
Resolves:Jan 20, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2021
When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?
Sep 2069
Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?
1%
Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?
50%
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2021
Closes:Nov 4, 2024
Resolves:Jan 20, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2021
When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?
Sep 2069
Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?
1%
Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?
50%