Question

Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?

Resolved :No10%

14 comments14

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction10% (5% - 24%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

63.2

Community Peer Score

9.6

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

randnix

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

At least five dead, dozens missing after migrant boat capsizes off Greek island near Crete

•Dec 16, 2024

Migrant Boat Shipwreck South of Gavdos

•Dec 16, 2024

Map: 7.3-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Near Vanuatu

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

23.2%

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

3.2%

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

71.9k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

randnix

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

At least five dead, dozens missing after migrant boat capsizes off Greek island near Crete

•Dec 16, 2024

Migrant Boat Shipwreck South of Gavdos

•Dec 16, 2024

Map: 7.3-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Near Vanuatu

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?

23.2%

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

3.2%

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

71.9k