Question

Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?

Resolved :Yes95%

148 comments148

Total Forecasters728

Community Prediction95% (87% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

22.0

Community Peer Score

14.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

President of the US

2024 Elections (US)

Grover Cleveland

Republican Party (US)

Donald Trump

US Senate

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Daily Mail•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

1.7%

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

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