📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?

Resolved :No15%
Community Prediction7%16.8%26.6%36.4%46.2%Jan 28Feb 01Feb 05Feb 09Feb 13Feb 17Feb 21Feb 25Mar 01Mar 05Mar 09Mar 13Mar 17Mar 21Mar 25now
Total Forecasters92
Community Prediction15% (12% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
9.4
Community Peer Score
13.2
Opened:Aug 11, 2021
Closes:Mar 27, 2022
Resolves:Jan 7, 2023

Comments

? comments

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.

Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy