Question

What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?

Resolved :54.673.7

6 comments6

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction73.7 (66 - 83.7)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

66.02

73.73

83.75

What was the final result?54.6

Community Baseline Score

-22.9

Community Peer Score

26.5

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Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

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Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.19

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Vaccine misinformation distorts science – a biochemist explains how RFK Jr. and his lawyer’s claims threaten public health

The Conversation•Dec 17, 2024

Is Pfizer Stock Undervalued?

Forbes•Dec 18, 2024

Russian Cancer Vaccine: Scientists 'Very Skeptical'

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.19

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

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MetaculusM

What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?

Make a Prediction

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Comments

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?