Question

What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?

Resolved :58.757.5

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction57.5 (57.4 - 57.9)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>62
community	57.35	57.51	57.85	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	57.35	—
median	57.51	—
upper 75%	57.85	—
Upper bound
>62	0.4%	—

What was the final result?58.7

Community Baseline Score

-8.2

Community Peer Score

5.7

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 13, 2020

Closes:

Feb 14, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 15, 2021

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Technical Benchmarks

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Machine learning

Microsoft

China’s DeepSeek claims theoretical cost-profit ratio of 545% per day

One America•Mar 4, 2025

People are using Super Mario to benchmark AI now

TechCrunch•Mar 4, 2025

Amazon is working on a new 'reasoning' AI model that competes with OpenAI and Anthropic

Business Insider•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

188

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

91.9

Comments

? comments