Question

What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?

Resolved :58.757.5

2 comments2

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction57.5 (57.4 - 57.9)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>62

...

57.35

57.51

57.85

0.4%

What was the final result?58.7

Community Baseline Score

-8.2

Community Peer Score

5.7

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 13, 2020

Closes:

Feb 14, 2021

Resolves:

Jun 15, 2021

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Technical Benchmarks

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Machine learning

Microsoft

DeepSeek says its newest AI model, Janus-Pro can outperform Stable Diffusion and DALL-E 3.

Verge•Jan 28, 2025

DeepSeek just dropped an update AI model called Janus Pro. It says the image generator is better than OpenAI's DALL-E.

Business Insider•Jan 28, 2025

Viral AI company DeepSeek releases new image model family

TechCrunch•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?

193

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

91.9

Comments

? comments