Question

Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?

Resolved :No

47 comments47

Total Forecasters165

Community Prediction3%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

80.9

Community Peer Score

8.0

median 3.0%mean 6.3%

Authors:

adamr

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Doug Ducey

116th United States Congress

Republican Party (US)

Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

15%

Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

adamr

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Doug Ducey

116th United States Congress

Republican Party (US)

Republicans Now Only 1 Seat Away From House Control

Forbes•Nov 14, 2024

Far-right House members suggest rebellion against Johnson could be on the horizon

Independent•Nov 14, 2024

'Enough already': Trump Cabinet choices eat away at the House GOP's tight majority

USA Today•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?

In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?

15%