Question

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction2073-04-17 (2055-03-28 - 2105-01-24)

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weight:

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2119-12-22

...

2055-03-28 03:35

2073-04-17 16:07

2105-01-24 10:53

20.8%

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Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Self-driving car

Automation

NHTSA finally releases new rules for self-driving cars — but there’s a twist

Verge•Dec 21, 2024

Feds clear the way for robotaxis without steering wheels and pedals

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.01

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

3.71k

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Self-driving car

Automation

NHTSA finally releases new rules for self-driving cars — but there’s a twist

Verge•Dec 21, 2024

Feds clear the way for robotaxis without steering wheels and pedals

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.01

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

3.71k

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

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When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

Comments

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?