Question

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction2073-10

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2119-12

...

2055-04

2073-10

2108-04

21.7%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Technology

United States

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Self-driving car

Automation

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

3.71k

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial intelligence

Technology

United States

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Self-driving car

Automation

Vance’s car seat concerns add to the GOP candidate’s headaches

MSNBC•Oct 1, 2024

Cybertruck Finally Gets Full Self-Driving (Supervised)

Wired•Oct 1, 2024

With Newsom’s Veto, Big Tech Beats Democracy

Jacobin•Oct 1, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

3.71k

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

22%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Comments

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

How many alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?