Question

Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?

Resolved :Yes82%

25 comments25

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction82% (72% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 82%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

66.7

Community Peer Score

1.1

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Authors:

Fee

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

War in Afghanistan (2001–present)

US Department of Defense

US Armed Forces

Pentagon says it doubled the number of US troops in Syria before Assad’s fall

Associated Press•Dec 20, 2024

US concedes it has double the number of troops in Syria as Biden prepares to send officials to Damascus

CNN•Dec 20, 2024

Pentagon says the number of US troops in Syria is much higher than previously reported

FOX News•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

11%

Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?

15%

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Fee

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

War in Afghanistan (2001–present)

US Department of Defense

US Armed Forces

Pentagon says it doubled the number of US troops in Syria before Assad’s fall

Associated Press•Dec 20, 2024

US concedes it has double the number of troops in Syria as Biden prepares to send officials to Damascus

CNN•Dec 20, 2024

Pentagon says the number of US troops in Syria is much higher than previously reported

FOX News•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

11%

Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?

15%

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

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Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?

Make a Prediction

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Comments

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?

Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?