Question

Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved :No50%

155 comments155

Total Forecasters1038

Community Prediction50% (45% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-8.2

Community Peer Score

14.0

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Feb 8, 2021

Closes:

Nov 5, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 21, 2025

Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

116th United States Congress

Facing 4 More Years of Trump, Democrats Can’t Agree on a Plan

Time•Jan 21, 2025

David Axelrod Rebukes Joe Biden Over Reelection Remarks: 'Nuts'

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Joe Biden Still Thinks He Could Have Won in 2024. Oh, Please.

Red State•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

0.1%

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