Question

Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?

152 comments152

Total Forecasters1038

Community Prediction50% (45% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

116th United States Congress

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

The Electoral College votes to confirm results for the 2024 presidential election today. Here's what to know.

CBS•Dec 17, 2024

Electoral College: How it’s changed this year

CNN•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

? comments