Question

Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?

152 comments152

Total Forecasters1038

Community Prediction50%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

median 50.0%mean 51.0%

Authors:

casens

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Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

Democratic Party (US)

116th United States Congress

The size of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, explained in 5 charts

PBS NewsHour•Nov 25, 2024

Election poll reveals grim detail that could spell doom for Democrats hoping to return to the White House

Daily Mail•Nov 27, 2024

Trump's favorability surges in recent poll as Democrats and Republicans reveal who they want to run in 2028

Daily Mail•Nov 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

Democratic Party (US)

116th United States Congress

The size of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, explained in 5 charts

PBS NewsHour•Nov 25, 2024

Election poll reveals grim detail that could spell doom for Democrats hoping to return to the White House

Daily Mail•Nov 27, 2024

Trump's favorability surges in recent poll as Democrats and Republicans reveal who they want to run in 2028

Daily Mail•Nov 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%