Question

Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?

Resolved :Yes

23 comments23

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction95%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

86.9

Community Peer Score

4.1

median 95.0%mean 94.1%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Food and Drug Administration

Emergency Use Authorization

Epidemiology

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.06

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

269

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