Question

Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?

Resolved :No

17 comments17

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction13%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 13%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

72.5

Community Peer Score

1.4

median 13.0%mean 13.9%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Infectious disease

West Africa Time

Democratic Republic of the Congo

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

9.3%

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

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