Question

Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?

Resolved :No13%

17 comments17

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction13% (10% - 18%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 13%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

72.5

Community Peer Score

1.4

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Virology

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

Infectious disease

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Congo's health ministry says unknown disease is severe malaria. What to know.

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

DRC health ministry says mystery disease is ‘severe’ form of malaria

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

Mysterious disease in DRC is severe malaria, health authorities say

Al Jazeera•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

0.5%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Virology

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

Infectious disease

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Congo's health ministry says unknown disease is severe malaria. What to know.

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

DRC health ministry says mystery disease is ‘severe’ form of malaria

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

Mysterious disease in DRC is severe malaria, health authorities say

Al Jazeera•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

0.5%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?

Make a Prediction

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Comments

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?