📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

6
5
Total Forecasters49
Community Prediction14.4k (8.37k - 23.4k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<500
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>500k
...
...
...
...
...
0.3%
8.374k
14.37k
23.4k
0.2%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting AI Progress
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Safety
Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
ArXiv
Ethics
Machine learning
Interpretability
AI control problem

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