Question

When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?

39 comments39

Total Forecasters138

Community Prediction2056-04-15 (2039-02-20 - 2161-02-14)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2499-12-29

...

2039-02-20 12:52

2056-04-15 00:59

2161-02-14 03:06

15.9%

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Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Longevity escape velocity

Americans are living longer, thanks to pandemic's end, fewer opioid deaths

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

Living longer, not healthier: Study finds periods of poor health toward end of life

FOX News•Dec 18, 2024

The secret to living to 110? Bad record-keeping, researcher says

Raw Story•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?

2064-01-22

Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?

43%

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Longevity escape velocity

Americans are living longer, thanks to pandemic's end, fewer opioid deaths

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

Living longer, not healthier: Study finds periods of poor health toward end of life

FOX News•Dec 18, 2024

The secret to living to 110? Bad record-keeping, researcher says

Raw Story•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?

2064-01-22

Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?

43%

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?

90%

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MetaculusM

When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?

Make a Prediction

When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?

Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?

Comments

When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?

Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?

When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?

Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?

When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?

Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?