Question

By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?

Resolved :No5%

34 comments34

Total Forecasters236

Community Prediction5% (1% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.5

Community Peer Score

12.0

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Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

Flat Earth

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FOX News•Dec 17, 2024

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Red State•Dec 19, 2024

A rounded history of Flat-Earthers: How mad theory popularised in the Victorian era has been parroted by celebrities including Freddie Flintoff

Daily Mail•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?

10%

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

Flat Earth

Vance will likely be 2028 front-runner, but RNC chair 'excited about the bench that we have'

FOX News•Dec 17, 2024

What DNC Officials Are Saying About Kamala Harris and 2028 Is Absolutely Mind-Blowing

Red State•Dec 19, 2024

A rounded history of Flat-Earthers: How mad theory popularised in the Victorian era has been parroted by celebrities including Freddie Flintoff

Daily Mail•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?

10%

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?

Make a Prediction

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

Comments

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?