Question

Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?

80 comments80

Total Forecasters434

Community Prediction15% (9% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Feb 27, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

Federal Communications Commission

Astronomy

Physics

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

United States

Scientists warn of new threat that'll make airplane disasters more common... after deadly string of crashes

Daily Mail•Feb 12, 2025

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Time•Feb 16, 2025

NASA’s odds of ‘city-killing’ asteroid hitting Earth just went up — the highest probability ever

New York Post•Feb 18, 2025

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If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.07k

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Feb 27, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

Federal Communications Commission

Astronomy

Physics

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

United States

Scientists warn of new threat that'll make airplane disasters more common... after deadly string of crashes

Daily Mail•Feb 12, 2025

Do You Need to Worry About an Asteroid Hitting Earth?

Time•Feb 16, 2025

NASA’s odds of ‘city-killing’ asteroid hitting Earth just went up — the highest probability ever

New York Post•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.07k