Question

Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?

80 comments80

Total Forecasters429

Community Prediction17%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17%

median 17.0%mean 20.3%

Authors:

jzima

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Space

Economy & Business

Technology

Federal Communications Commission

Astronomy

Physics

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

United States

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2040-08-02

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1.06k

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

Federal Communications Commission

Astronomy

Physics

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

United States

Asteroids pass by each day. Luckily, large asteroid crashes are uncommon.

USA Today•Nov 24, 2024

SpaceX Starlink Launches Today: Back-to-Back Liftoffs in Florida

Newsweek•Nov 26, 2024

Scientists come up with a way to save Earth from a catastrophic asteroid collision

Daily Mail•Nov 26, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k