Question

When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction2025-12-31 (2025-07-10 - 2025-12-31)

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lower 25%

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upper 75%

>2025-12-31

...

2025-07-10 11:04

>2025-12-31 00:00

63.6%

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Authors:

Sergio

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Artificial Intelligence

Social Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Sociology

Security

Facial recognition system

Psychology

Information technology

Big Five personality traits

Personality psychology

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Are Psychopaths Born or Made?

Psychology Today•Dec 13, 2024

Finding Your Virtual Comfort Zone

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

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When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?

2033-08-08

When will an open-source software capable of tagging images and videos with 99% accuracy and processing images at a rate of at least one image per second on Orange Pi 5 be available?

2029-06-18

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

0.256

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Sergio

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Social Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Sociology

Security

Facial recognition system

Psychology

Information technology

Big Five personality traits

Personality psychology

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Are Psychopaths Born or Made?

Psychology Today•Dec 13, 2024

Finding Your Virtual Comfort Zone

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?

2033-08-08

When will an open-source software capable of tagging images and videos with 99% accuracy and processing images at a rate of at least one image per second on Orange Pi 5 be available?

2029-06-18

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

0.256

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When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?

Make a Prediction

When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?

When will an open-source software capable of tagging images and videos with 99% accuracy and processing images at a rate of at least one image per second on Orange Pi 5 be available?

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

Comments

When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?

When will an open-source software capable of tagging images and videos with 99% accuracy and processing images at a rate of at least one image per second on Orange Pi 5 be available?

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?

When will an open-source software capable of tagging images and videos with 99% accuracy and processing images at a rate of at least one image per second on Orange Pi 5 be available?

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?

When will an open-source software capable of tagging images and videos with 99% accuracy and processing images at a rate of at least one image per second on Orange Pi 5 be available?

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?