Question

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

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Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction15% (8% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 6, 2021

Closes:

Apr 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

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Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 100,000 or more inhabitants before 2050?

60%

Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?

4.9%

Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants before 2100?

50%

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