Question

By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?

Resolved :No24%

28 comments28

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction24% (18% - 32%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 24%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

46.6

Community Peer Score

4.6

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Mar 8, 2021

Closes:

Aug 3, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2022

Future Perfect 2021 Series

Politics

2021 Leaderboard

Supreme Court of the US

Abortion

United States

Abortion in the United States

Roe v. Wade

Trump promised to leave abortion to the states. He capped his first week by targeting reproductive rights

Independent•Jan 26, 2025

Abortions are up in the US. It's a complicated picture as women turn to pills, travel

Independent•Jan 28, 2025

Missouri judge rules state’s abortion ban is unenforceable after constitutional amendment

PBS NewsHour•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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25%

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

15%

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

53.9

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