Question

By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?

Resolved :No

28 comments28

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction24%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 24%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

46.6

Community Peer Score

4.6

median 24.0%mean 24.0%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2021 Series

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

Abortion

United States

Abortion in the United States

Roe v. Wade

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.4

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → US National Abortion Ban before 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2021 Series

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

Abortion

United States

Abortion in the United States

Roe v. Wade

The Next Frontline in the Fight for Reproductive Rights

Slate•Nov 15, 2024

Will Abortion Rights Survive Republican Trifecta? Top Activists Respond

Newsweek•Nov 17, 2024

Emboldened anti-abortion groups create wishlist for second Trump term

Guardian•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

In what percent of US States will Casey-era abortion rights be granted on May 1, 2026?

54.4