Question

When will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction2044-03-17 (2035-04-02 - 2059-02-09)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2074-12-25

...

2035-04-02 20:49

2044-03-17 10:39

2059-02-09 08:26

11.3%

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Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

As robotaxi companies stumble in the US, China’s fleet is growing

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo is sending autonomous vehicles to Japan for first international tests

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo Robotaxis Are Heading To Tokyo For Their First Overseas Road Tests

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

2073-04-17

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-09-09

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

As robotaxi companies stumble in the US, China’s fleet is growing

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo is sending autonomous vehicles to Japan for first international tests

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo Robotaxis Are Heading To Tokyo For Their First Overseas Road Tests

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

2073-04-17

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-09-09

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States?

Make a Prediction

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

Comments

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?