Question

Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters55

Community Prediction70% (61% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Authors:

Mellaculus

Opened:

Mar 17, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Large Magellanic Cloud

Multi-messenger astronomy

Cosmic Megastructure 32 Times Bigger Than The Milky Way Discovered

Forbes•Jan 20, 2025

One large Milky Way galaxy or many galaxies? 100 years ago, a young Edwin Hubble settled astronomy’s ‘Great Debate’

The Conversation•Jan 24, 2025

Meteor showers, northern lights and supermoons: Here’s what 2025 has in store if you look up

New York Post•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?

0.1%

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

67%

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Mellaculus

Opened:

Mar 17, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Large Magellanic Cloud

Multi-messenger astronomy

Cosmic Megastructure 32 Times Bigger Than The Milky Way Discovered

Forbes•Jan 20, 2025

One large Milky Way galaxy or many galaxies? 100 years ago, a young Edwin Hubble settled astronomy’s ‘Great Debate’

The Conversation•Jan 24, 2025

Meteor showers, northern lights and supermoons: Here’s what 2025 has in store if you look up

New York Post•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?

0.1%

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

67%

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

20%