Question

Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?

Resolved :Yes

254 comments254

Total Forecasters281

Community Prediction60%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-20.7

Community Peer Score

19.1

median 60.0%mean 60.4%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Manslaughter (United States law)

Minneapolis

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?

94%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Manslaughter (United States law)

Minneapolis

Businesses at struggling corner where George Floyd was killed sue Minneapolis

Associated Press•Nov 15, 2024

Struggling businesses at corner where George Floyd was murdered sue the city

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Businesses near George Floyd Square demand $30 million to make up for loss of customers since murder

Independent•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?

94%