Question

If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?

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Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction29%

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community: 29%

median 29.0%mean 35.7%

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kokotajlod

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AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.43M

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

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Authors:

kokotajlod

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.43M

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

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If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?

Make a Prediction

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

Comments

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?