Question

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters122

Community Prediction15%

Make a Prediction

community: 15%

median 15.0%mean 16.7%

Authors:

kokotajlod

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Domestic terrorism in the United States

United States biological weapons program

Cyber-kinetic attack

White supremacy

Antigovernment

Cyber-security regulation

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

45%

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

27%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

kokotajlod

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Domestic terrorism in the United States

United States biological weapons program

Cyber-kinetic attack

White supremacy

Antigovernment

Cyber-security regulation

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

45%

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

27%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Make a Prediction

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Comments

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?