Question
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
Total Forecasters63
Community Prediction
4.16 years
(-1.47 - 15)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-50 | 4.9% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | -1.474 | — |
| median | 4.164 | — |
| upper 75% | 14.99 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50 | 5.7% | — |
Authors:
Opened:May 4, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:May 4, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch