Question
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Total Forecasters172
Community Prediction
2031
(2026 - 2043)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2026 | — |
| median | 2031 | — |
| upper 75% | 2043 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1041344640000% | 2.0% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 26, 2021
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 26, 2021
