Question
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Total Forecasters172
Community Prediction2031-06-01 (2026-07-17 - 2044-04-21)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2026 | — |
| median | 2031 | — |
| upper 75% | 2044 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2299-12-28 | 2.0% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
