Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

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M

Question

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

40
93
Total Forecasters164
Community Prediction2030-05-24 (2026-02-22 - 2038-09-28)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2299-12-28
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2026-02-22 16:18
2030-05-24 05:19
2038-09-28 11:54
2.7%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
PeterWildeford
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Demonstrations
Metaculus
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence

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