Question

How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

Resolved :231k

13 comments13

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction848k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<5k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30M

...

1.2%

376k

848k

2.15M

5.1%

What was the final result?231k

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Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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Alt-Protein Tournament

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Health & Pandemics

Economy & Business

Technology

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1

Social Democrats (Denmark)

2009 swine flu pandemic

Nipah virus infection

Public health

Foot-and-mouth disease

Veterinary medicine

Infectious disease

2019–20 coronavirus pandemic

Medicine

Swine fever sweeps Italy’s north, threatening production of prized prosciutto and livelihoods

Associated Press•Oct 2, 2024

Bird flu kills 47 tigers, 3 lions and a panther in Vietnam zoos, state media reports

CBS•Oct 2, 2024

Prosciutto warning as swine fever sweeps Italy with 120,000 pigs killed

Independent•Oct 2, 2024

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Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

2040-01

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How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?

Make a Prediction

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Comments

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?