Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?

19
11
Total Forecasters42
Community Prediction1×10¹⁶ (1.62T - 4.7×10¹⁹)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<20k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1×10²⁵
...
...
...
...
...
5.2%
1.621T
1×10¹⁶
4.7×10¹⁹
8.5%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Space
Natural Sciences
Astronomy
Atmosphere of Jupiter
Physics
Cosmology
Oort cloud
Earth
Astrophysics
Atmosphere of Venus
Colonization of Mars
Observable universe

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