Question

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

Resolved :No1%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters125

Community Prediction1% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

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81.2

Community Peer Score

9.7

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IARPA Question Bot

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IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

North Atlantic Treaty

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Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

96%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO Calls on Nations To Divert Social Security Money to Defense

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Russia Warns Of NATO War Within 10 Years

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

NATO PA urges more support for Ukraine, calls for strategic approach to counter Russian hostility

•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

96%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

Make a Prediction

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

Comments

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?