Question

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

Resolved :No

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Total Forecasters125

Community Prediction1%

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50%

community: 1%

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Community Baseline Score

81.2

Community Peer Score

9.7

median 1.0%mean 4.5%

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IARPA Question Bot

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IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Geopolitics

Turkey

Russo-Ukrainian War

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

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Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

96%

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