Question

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

Resolved :No1%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters125

Community Prediction1% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

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81.2

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9.7

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IARPA Question Bot

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IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

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FOX News•Dec 13, 2024

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Daily Mail•Dec 13, 2024

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Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

96%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

NATO chief urges members to 'turbocharge' defense production as he paints picture of a world bound for war

FOX News•Dec 13, 2024

Daily Mail•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

0.5%

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

96%

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Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

Make a Prediction

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

Comments

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?