Question

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

Resolved :No1%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters125

Community Prediction1% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

81.2

Community Peer Score

9.7

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Mar 31, 2018

Closes:

Sep 7, 2018

Resolves:

Sep 9, 2018

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

Trump considering major NATO policy shift

NBC•Mar 7, 2025

Trump Weighs Overhaul of NATO Commitments Based on Defense Spending: Report

Newsweek•Mar 7, 2025

Trump considering changing NATO policy to favor countries spending more on defense: report

Independent•Mar 7, 2025

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