Question

When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?

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Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction2030-12

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2026-01

2030-12

2034-04

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning

English language

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Technology

Computer science

Google Ngram Viewer

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95%

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?

110k

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

51%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning

English language

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Technology

Computer science

Google Ngram Viewer

The Improvisational Nature of LLMs and Human Thought

Psychology Today•Oct 1, 2024

Hidden traces of humanity: what AI images reveal about our world

Guardian•Oct 1, 2024

AI and the Human Mind: Uncovering the Machine "Unconscious"

Psychology Today•Oct 1, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95%

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?

110k

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

51%

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When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?

Make a Prediction

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Comments

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?