Question

When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?

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Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction2030-12-26 (2026-01-02 - 2034-04-01)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2026-01-02 01:04

2030-12-26 11:08

2034-04-01 21:50

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Authors:

Tamay

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Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

Rethinking Learning Theory—the Value of LLMs

Psychology Today•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95%

How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?

110k

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

51%

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