Question

When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction2030-12-26 (2026-01-02 - 2034-04-01)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	Jan 2026	Dec 2030	Apr 2034
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Jan 2026	—
median	Dec 2030	—
upper 75%	Apr 2034	—

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Apr 27, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2045

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

DeepSeek: Is This a “Sputnik Moment”?

Psychology Today•Mar 5, 2025

AI Shifts Search Engines to Thought Engines

Psychology Today•Mar 7, 2025

Chatbots Are Academically Dishonest

Atlantic•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95%

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

66%

When will an AI model capable of autonomously generating accurate and complete book summaries be commonly available?

2025-08-16

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