Question

Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?

Resolved :No

11 comments11

Total Forecasters122

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.4

Community Peer Score

2.3

median 1.0%mean 2.2%

Authors:

tdevassal

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Demonstrations

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

47.1%

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

24%

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