Question

Has North Korea tested a boosted fission nuclear device?

Resolved :No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction40%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-10.1

Community Peer Score

33.8

median 40.0%mean 47.3%

Authors:

Adrian

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Natural Sciences

Technology

Thermonuclear weapon

Boosted fission weapon

Timeline of the North Korean nuclear program

Physics

Military science

North Korea

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

80%

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

28%

Comments

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