Question

Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?

Resolved :Ambiguous

143 comments143

Total Forecasters205

Community Prediction37%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 37%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 37.0%mean 35.9%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

With Trump coming into power, the NIH is in the crosshairs

NPR Online News•Nov 13, 2024

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CBS•Nov 15, 2024

COVID-19 cover-up claims swirl after whistleblower reveals disease ‘blueprint’ may have been wrongly classified

New York Post•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

1.9%

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

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