Question

Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?

Resolved :Ambiguous37%

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Total Forecasters205

Community Prediction37% (25% - 45%)

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community: 37%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

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Matthew_Barnett

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Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Deadly virus samples went missing from lab in ‘major biosecurity breach,’ say authorities

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Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Deadly virus samples went missing from lab in ‘major biosecurity breach,’ say authorities

FOX News•Dec 11, 2024

No, researcher didn’t warn of ‘unleashed’ viruses after Trump takes office | Fact check

USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?

Make a Prediction

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Comments

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?