Question

Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?

40 comments40

Total Forecasters154

Community Prediction92.4% (83% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 92.4%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

May 20, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Soviet Union

Google Trends

Artificial intelligence arms race

Sputnik 1

The Alarming National Security Implications of DeepSeek and China’s A.I. Breakthrough

Observer (NY)•Jan 28, 2025

DeepSeek isn’t the AI game-changer the Chinese think it is

Independent•Jan 28, 2025

Why China's young super geeks could herald the West's 'darkest hour': Their AI is cheaper, quicker and better... no wonder the world fears a 'Sputnik' moment

Daily Mail•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.22k

Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?

70%

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

2027-04-04

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

May 20, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Soviet Union

Google Trends

Artificial intelligence arms race

Sputnik 1

The Alarming National Security Implications of DeepSeek and China’s A.I. Breakthrough

Observer (NY)•Jan 28, 2025

DeepSeek isn’t the AI game-changer the Chinese think it is

Independent•Jan 28, 2025

Why China's young super geeks could herald the West's 'darkest hour': Their AI is cheaper, quicker and better... no wonder the world fears a 'Sputnik' moment

Daily Mail•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.22k

Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?

70%

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

2027-04-04