Question

Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?

37 comments37

Total Forecasters150

Community Prediction92% (75% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 92%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Soviet Union

Artificial intelligence arms race

Sputnik 1

Google Trends

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt calls for 'unplugging' AI systems when they reach certain capability

FOX News•Dec 17, 2024

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.2k

Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?

70%

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

2028-05-19

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Soviet Union

Artificial intelligence arms race

Sputnik 1

Google Trends

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt calls for 'unplugging' AI systems when they reach certain capability

FOX News•Dec 17, 2024

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.2k

Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?

70%

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

2028-05-19