Question
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters72
Community Prediction
13%
(10% - 20%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
38.9
Community Peer Score
14.8
Authors:
Opened:May 18, 2021
Closes:Nov 10, 2021
Resolves:Dec 31, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
7%
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?
11%
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:May 18, 2021
Closes:Nov 10, 2021
Resolves:Dec 31, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:May 20, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
7%
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?
11%