Question

Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?

Resolved :No

69 comments69

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction17%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-12.7

Community Peer Score

45.8

median 17.0%mean 19.0%

Authors:

GlobalGuessing

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

State of Palestine

West Bank

Jewish Virtual Library

Gaza Strip

Hamas

Palestinian National Authority

Israel

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Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Comments

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Authors:

GlobalGuessing

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

State of Palestine

West Bank

Jewish Virtual Library

Gaza Strip

Hamas

Palestinian National Authority

Israel

Israeli strikes kill dozens in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, medics say

NPR Online News•Nov 13, 2024

Iran-linked attacks against US skyrocket by 600% since Oct 2023 Hamas attack on Israel: report

FOX News•Nov 13, 2024

Daily Hezbollah strikes begin to dwindle as Israel closes in on cease-fire deal: officials

New York Post•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?