Question

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction1.22k (241 - 5.19k)

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10k

...

240.6

1.223k

5.194k

16.6%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Aug 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

AGI

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

OpenAI’s Sam Altman: ‘We Know How To Build AGI’, Will Hit Workforce In 2025

Daily Wire•Jan 26, 2025

What Is DeepSeek, the New Chinese OpenAI Rival?

Time•Jan 28, 2025

The Alarming National Security Implications of DeepSeek and China’s A.I. Breakthrough

Observer (NY)•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

37.4%

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

31.1

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.5

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