Question

Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

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Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction59% (55% - 60%)

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50%

community: 59%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Google says it has made a chip that can be more than a billion times faster than the fastest supercomputers

Independent•Dec 11, 2024

With Willow, Will Knowledge Takes on a Life of Its Own?

Psychology Today•Dec 14, 2024

The future of neuroscience could be wireless

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

30%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Google says it has made a chip that can be more than a billion times faster than the fastest supercomputers

Independent•Dec 11, 2024

With Willow, Will Knowledge Takes on a Life of Its Own?

Psychology Today•Dec 14, 2024

The future of neuroscience could be wireless

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

30%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

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Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

Make a Prediction

By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Comments

By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?