Question

Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters221

Community Prediction

57%

(40% - 65%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 57%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Mar 29, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 31, 2018

Economy & Business

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Ethics

Paul Christiano

It’s going to take a catastrophic event for AI safety to be taken seriously

Independent•Apr 20, 2025

OpenAI says it could rebuild GPT-4 from scratch with just 5 to 10 people, thanks to breakthroughs from its latest model

Business Insider•Apr 18, 2025

The Nuclear-Level Risk of Superintelligent AI

Time•Apr 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

33%

Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?

61%

When will we have transformative AI?

Jul 2037

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Mar 29, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 31, 2018

Economy & Business

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Ethics

Paul Christiano

It’s going to take a catastrophic event for AI safety to be taken seriously

Independent•Apr 20, 2025

OpenAI says it could rebuild GPT-4 from scratch with just 5 to 10 people, thanks to breakthroughs from its latest model

Business Insider•Apr 18, 2025

The Nuclear-Level Risk of Superintelligent AI

Time•Apr 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

33%

Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?

61%

When will we have transformative AI?

Jul 2037

Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?

When will we have transformative AI?

Comments

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?

When will we have transformative AI?

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