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2.5k forecasters

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

17%chance

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 29, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 29, 2018

Economy & Business

SpaceX launch marks redemption for Starship. But time may be running out

CNN•Oct 14, 2025

SpaceX’s Starship Succeeds in Final Test Flight of 2025

Scientific American•Oct 14, 2025

SpaceX to launch Starship today in crucial test of Elon Musk’s Mars plans

Independent•Oct 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?

An uncrewed craft

At least one person

At least one person—and return them to Earth

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?