SpaceX must build 1,000 Starships in 10 years to reach its Mars goal, but so far, 0 Starships have made it to space.

Starship has already shown significant progress with a prototype completing a hypersonic return to Earth and landing in the Indian Ocean in June 2024, marking a major breakthrough after three failed attempts.

Elon's own predictions

SpaceX has a history of ambitious timelines, such as Elon Musk's claim that uncrewed Starship rockets could be sent to Mars by 2026, with a crewed expedition in 2028, which suggests potential for delays given the complexity of such missions.

The FAA must be reauthorized every 5 years, and its last authorization expired on September 30, 2023, which could lead to regulatory uncertainty affecting SpaceX's Mars mission timeline.