🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

Total Forecasters1292
Community Prediction25% (15% - 36%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 25%
Learn more about scores here.
Starship has already shown significant progress with a prototype completing a hypersonic return to Earth and landing in the Indian Ocean in June 2024, marking a major breakthrough after three failed attempts.
SpaceX must build 1,000 Starships in 10 years to reach its Mars goal, but so far, 0 Starships have made it to space.
The FAA must be reauthorized every 5 years, and its last authorization expired on September 30, 2023, which could lead to regulatory uncertainty affecting SpaceX's Mars mission timeline.
SpaceX has a history of ambitious timelines, such as Elon Musk's claim that uncrewed Starship rockets could be sent to Mars by 2026, with a crewed expedition in 2028, which suggests potential for delays given the complexity of such missions.
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